Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.049299 0.055984 0.063450 0.072448 0.083045 0.095194 0.110262
2026-01-04 0.041323 0.050148 0.060846 0.074915 0.093146 0.116274 0.148324
2026-01-11 0.034832 0.044732 0.057615 0.075931 0.101841 0.138036 0.193998
2026-01-18 0.029672 0.040083 0.054528 0.076607 0.110577 0.162769 0.253074
2026-01-25 0.024965 0.035244 0.050334 0.074962 0.115921 0.184853 0.318253
2026-02-01 0.020859 0.030592 0.045606 0.071587 0.117992 0.203102 0.386914
2026-02-08 0.018339 0.027935 0.043492 0.072080 0.127115 0.237893 0.508603
2026-02-15 0.016274 0.025672 0.041629 0.072675 0.136971 0.279062 0.674312
2026-02-22 0.014691 0.023960 0.040415 0.074277 0.149745 0.333488 0.921756
2026-03-01 0.013301 0.022366 0.039138 0.075523 0.162573 0.395990 1.261658
2026-03-08 0.011838 0.020420 0.036861 0.074180 0.169185 0.447118 1.631826
2026-03-15 0.010238 0.017997 0.033253 0.069088 0.164781 0.464657 1.898179
2026-03-22 0.009350 0.016850 0.032109 0.069634 0.176582 0.545606 2.632888
2026-03-29 0.008695 0.016071 0.031613 0.071708 0.194199 0.664140 3.900403
2026-04-05 0.008020 0.015155 0.030667 0.072441 0.208473 0.785719 5.639235
2026-04-12 0.007407 0.014288 0.029690 0.072889 0.222506 0.924574 8.229005
2026-04-19 0.006746 0.013230 0.028089 0.071186 0.228356 1.032721 11.217010
2026-04-26 0.006082 0.012087 0.026110 0.067896 0.226879 1.102211 14.310640
2026-05-03 0.005679 0.011480 0.025368 0.068259 0.241004 1.293188 21.878633
2026-05-10 0.005322 0.010939 0.024706 0.068734 0.256363 1.523956 34.672053
2026-05-17 0.005041 0.010537 0.024348 0.070160 0.277563 1.849211 60.451760
2026-05-24 0.004773 0.010135 0.023923 0.071265 0.298432 2.228859 109.190516
2026-05-31 0.004445 0.009550 0.022904 0.069966 0.306094 2.503439 175.279436